Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board continued to worsen in September as fears over inflation and the COVID-19 Delta variant persist. As shown in the charts below, both the Present Situation and Future Expectations components contributed to last month’s decline.
As we noted in our most recent issue of InvesTech Research, an extreme negative spread between Future Expectations and the Present Situation has often preceded recession, and this spread continued to widen in the most recent report (see chart below). With Consumer Confidence notching its biggest two-month drop since last year’s pandemic-induced recession, the Conference Board warns that “consumers have grown more cautious and are likely to curtail spending going forward.”
