This morning’s release of Consumer Confidence for the month of June from the Conference Board remained fairly muted, falling 0.9 points from last month. The majority of the decline is from a 1.9 point decrease in the Future Expectations Index, which we highlighted in our recent issue of InvesTech Research as a top five indicator to watch. Meanwhile, the Present Situation Index barely improved, rising just 0.7 points.
The Future Expectations Index tracks consumers’ short-term outlook for business, income, and labor market conditions. While it has not yet fallen below its 2022 bottom (dashed red line), it remains significantly under its pre-pandemic levels and continues to show no signs of improvement. This will continue to be important to watch, as Future Expectations readings below 80.0 historically point to a possible recession within the next year.
Here’s an excerpt from the latest press release:
“Confidence pulled back in June but remained within the same narrow range that’s held throughout the past two years, as strength in current labor market views continued to outweigh concerns about the future. However, if material weaknesses in the labor market appear, Confidence could weaken as the year progresses,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.
