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Chart of the Week

Archived Chart: From October 18, 2019

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by -0.1% in September, indicative of growing weakness in the U.S. economy. Not only was September’s reading negative, but the LEI was revised downward from 0.0% to -0.2% for the month of August. Although these declines are moderate, it brings the LEI closer to crossing below its 18-month moving average, which has historically been a reliable indication of recession. Similar economic slowdowns have occurred previously during this cycle, however, continued weakness in this leading index could mean that the U.S. is headed for the first recession in over a decade. Stay tuned as we closely monitor this key economic indicator.

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