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Chart of the Week

Archived Chart: From March 22, 2019

The Fed Yield Spread Model is showing that there is an increasing likelihood of a recession during the next year. The model is based on the spread between long-term (10-yr T-bond) and short-term (3-month T-bill) yields. When short-term rates rise (or long-term rates fall) the yield spread tends to narrow and the probability of recession increases. Stay tuned as we monitor this important indicator closely in coming months.

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