This morning’s report on New Home Sales from the Census Bureau showed a 4.7% decrease from the previous month’s revised figure, but more notably, current inventory levels have reached 9.1 months of supply.
It’s too early to say whether a housing hard landing is imminent. However, outside of pandemic distortions, new home sales months’ supply is now at a level seen during the worst housing recessions of the past 50 years (red circles). The recent rise and level in months’ supply of new homes for sale is notable, and we will continue to watch for evidence of a serious housing market downturn – as it would be sure to have far-reaching economic effects.
